Inapa diz “adeus” à bolsa e ações afundam mais de 50%

[MVP]

Da forma que vejo, os democratas podem substituir Biden e tentar lutar pela eleição ou resignarem-se a mais 4 anos Trump e possivelmente mais 12 Republicanos assim que DeSantis seja o porta estandarte dos MAGA. Até porque a atual Vice Presidente, Kamala Harris, não é mais popular que Biden e que seja vista como uma alternativa, pelo contrário consegue ser menos popular que ele. Todo o processo dos Democratas está a bater no fundo.

[MarcoAntonio]

Que "malucos"...

Exasperated Democrats try to stamp out talk of replacing Biden

Senate Democrats are feeling exasperated by their inability to stamp out persistent speculation that party leaders have a plan B to replace President Biden atop the Democratic ticket due to concerns about his age and weak poll numbers.

They’re tired of hearing about the hand-wringing of Democratic voters and donors over Biden’s age and electability and sick of reading about Rube Goldberg-like schemes, some of them pushed by Republicans or conservative media, to shake up the Democratic ticket.

One Democratic senator feigned putting a make-believe pistol to their temple when asked about the prospect of yanking Biden off the ticket before the Democratic National Convention in August or the general election in November.

The senator, who requested anonymity, said stories about replacing Biden on the ticket sound “juicy” but are nothing more than a sign that political pundits have “too much time on their hands.”

“There’s no way in hell that’s true. Not a chance in hell that’s true,” the lawmaker insisted. “I don’t know what to say.”

The senator said Biden has seen a small bump in the polls since a Manhattan jury convicted former President Trump on 34 felony charges of falsifying business records.

“The latest national [poll] has him at 50 [percent]. I think that’s real,” the senator added.

Biden and Trump are tied at 40 percent in a head-to-head match-up, according to the latest analysis of recent national polls by FiveThirtyEight, but Trump previously had a small lead over the president for months.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said stories about Biden dropping off the ticket this summer or fall are simply “bizarre.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) also poured cold water on the speculation.

“I’ve heard no credible plan B, and I’m not counting on a plan B,” he said.

The Democratic senator said Thursday’s debate between Biden and Trump “will be a really critical point” in the campaign and would set the trajectory of the race.

“All of the questions that people are asking right now will have different answers after this debate,” he said. “At the end of the day, it’s going to be a choice between the two of them. I think Biden is so much sharper, quicker, knowledgeable than even Democrats give him credit for.

“We all have moments when we can’t remember a name, but that’s not what’s important about being president of the United States,” he said. “I don’t have a plan B; I’m not looking for a plan B.”

Democratic senators have insisted for months that Biden will be their nominee for president in November, and they feel confident he will beat Trump in the general election.

But that hasn’t stopped speculation from bubbling up in the media that there could be a last-minute overhaul of the ticket.

One Democratic fundraising consultant said Democratic strategists and donors sometimes ask whether Biden will still be the party’s nominee for president in November, but the conversation usually fizzles out pretty quickly.

“If people mention that, if it’s talked about in settings, even if somebody says we need to have an alternative, it’s not really taken as something that seriously could happen,” the strategist said.

“You’re in a conversation with somebody, somebody says, ‘Do we have a backup?’ Something like that. Because, honestly, [Vice President] Harris is not really seen as ready for prime time,” the source added.

The Democratic consultant said there’s “zero” chance of replacing Biden.

Business Insider earlier this month published a list of the “7 Democrats who could replace Biden if he drops his 2024 reelection bid.”

That was followed by “Fox and Friends” co-host Brian Kilmeade asking Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, who was one of the names on Business Insider’s list, in an interview Wednesday if he would be ready to replace Biden. Moore quickly waved away the theory and declared Biden “the best candidate for the presidency.”

Politico published a piece Thursday reporting that Democratic voters are enthusiastic about Democratic candidates but not about Biden, citing it as “another ominous sign for the president.”

Politico Magazine published an analysis in February warning “Democrats might need a Plan B” and offering possible scenarios.

Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant for former Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush, wrote an op-ed for The Hill last month declaring, “Democrats can still jettison Biden as an ‘August Surprise.’

The Boston Herald reported this week that “a number of Democratic consultants are speculating that top party officials could be very quietly looking to remove Biden from the ticket before the convention and find a younger, more dynamic leader” such as Michelle Obama.

The paper asked if Hillary Clinton, who’s kept her name in the news, might be “paving the way for Democrats to pick her as the presidential nominee.”

British journalist Piers Morgan hosted a lengthy panel discussion on his show “Piers Morgan Uncensored” about replacing Biden atop the ticket after airing clips of Biden seeming confused during a fundraising event in Los Angeles with former President Obama.

The White House later slammed the video clip as selectively edited “misinformation” to make the president look bad, while Trump shared it on his media platform, Truth Social, with the comment, “Is this really who you want to be your President?”

The media speculation about Biden dropping off the ticket has been fueled by polls showing that a majority of voters think he’s too old to be an effective president.

A New York Times/Siena College survey of voters nationwide published in March found that 73 percent of voters thinks that, including 61 percent of voters who backed Biden in 2020.

Kathleen Parker, a columnist for The Washington Post, this month suggested that Democrats could address voters’ concerns about Biden’s age by replacing Harris with former secretary of State and first lady Hillary Clinton, the party’s 2016 nominee.

“Biden’s steady decline the past few years — his stumbles, his search for words, his occasional blank stare — have been impossible to ignore,” she wrote.

She argued Harris is a “significant obstacle” to Biden because independents and disenchanted Republicans might swing for Biden if it weren’t for the prospect of a President Harris.”

Durbin, the Senate’s No. 2 Democratic leader, however, panned the idea of Clinton running for president or vice president as implausible.

“No, I don’t think she’s likely to run again,” he said.

Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) acknowledged Democratic voters are alarmed over polls showing Trump has a solid chance of beating Biden in the fall.

“Everyone’s seen the polls and I think people are so alarmed that we could elect someone who’s kind of revealed themselves to be a demagogue,” he said, referring to Trump.

“Maybe he’ll only be a dictator for a day … but he’s revealed himself, and I think people are very, very concerned about that,” he said. “People look at those polls, and they’re nervous and anxious, but I don’t think there are any other alternative plans.”

The Hill

[MarcoAntonio]

Ligeira recuperação durante o fim de semana.

Parece-me que o pior que pode acontecer aos Democratas é o Biden safar-se no debate...

51.1% - Trump (R)
33.4% - Biden (D)
3.0% - Newsom (D)
2.8% - Obama (D)
1.2% - Harris (D)
1.1% - Kennedy (I)
0.8% - Clinton (D)
0.5% - Haley (R)
0.4% - Whitmer (D)
0.4% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.1% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.

[MarcoAntonio]

A menos de uma semana do debate agendado, aqui fica a actualização. Biden recuperou ligeiramente nas polls e nas odds, mas continua a ser claramente o underdog quer nas odds, quer no mapa eleitoral baseado nas sondagens por estado.

51.9% - Trump (R)
32.2% - Biden (D)
3.2% - Obama (D)
2.8% - Newsom (D)
1.3% - Harris (D)
1.1% - Kennedy (I)
0.9% - Clinton (D)
0.5% - Haley (R)
0.4% - Whitmer (D)
0.4% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.1% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.



Mapa indicativo.

[MarcoAntonio]

Uma peça interessante no FT que fala de alguns dos debates passados, possivelmente os poucos que foram decisivos e aqui e ali extrapola para o momento presente.

The mother of all US presidential debates

A set piece clash between Biden and Trump will turn less on policies than on each candidate’s manner and appearance

How do you run a debate between two men whose combined age is two-thirds that of the US republic? The answer is to have no audience, mute the one not talking and schedule bathroom breaks (calling them commercials). It would be an overstatement to say that next week’s clash between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be definitive. But in a close election in which each candidate’s mental capacity is under scrutiny, it will matter a lot.

Only three times in US history has a presidential debate arguably changed the outcome. In each case, however, they took place within weeks or days of the election. Biden pushed for a historically early date because so many Americans mail in their votes nowadays. In reality, his team wanted the earliest chance to break a polling deadlock that they assumed would have evaporated by now. The sooner Biden can quell doubts about his age and remind people of Trump’s character the better. That is the theory.

The past offers mixed messages. The first televised debates were between John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960. These would augur well for Trump. People who tuned in on their radios thought that Nixon had won. Those who watched it on TV went for Kennedy. The contrast between Nixon’s so-called five o’clock shadow and JFK’s radiant youthfulness mattered. Today’s equivalent would be to watch with the sound off. On that measure, Trump comes across as more vigorous. Kennedy won 34.2mn votes. Nixon won 34.1mn.

The other two election-deciding debates both involved Jimmy Carter. In 1976, a month before the election, Carter lured the sitting president, Gerald Ford, into a trap. He got Ford to deny there was Soviet domination of eastern Europe. This alienated swing state voters of Polish and Czech origin in a tight election where the electoral college margin boiled down to a few thousand votes in Ohio and Wisconsin. George Gallup called it “the most decisive moment in the campaign”. The actor Chevy Chase picked up on the gaffe in his Saturday Night Live impersonation of Ford. “Last year I visited the capital of Poland, and let me say from the outset that Milwaukee is a beautiful city,” said Chase’s Ford.

In 1980 Ronald Reagan’s genial presence quelled doubts that he was a fanatic on trigger alert with the USSR. Until that moment — a week before the election — Carter and Reagan’s numbers were neck and neck. All Reagan needed to do was to come across as sane. He won by a landslide. Examples two and three augur badly for Trump. He has no equal in his capacity to demean large groups of people. Past targets include women, people who serve in uniform, and those with close family suffering from addiction or disability. Though Trump can be funny, his character is decidedly un-reassuring.

On past performance, Biden ought to beat Trump. He was judged the winner in both their 2020 encounters. This was partly because Trump came across as obnoxious, notably about the waywardness of Biden’s son, Hunter. People liked it when Biden said, “Will you shut up, man?” Trump was heading for defeat anyway. He also lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 on both the content and his predatory body language. He defeated Clinton in spite of that. The former FBI director James Comey can help explain why.

Yet Democrats would be lying if they said they will not have their hearts in their mouths when Biden takes the podium next Thursday. The mute test is probably outdated. A better one would be TikTok, or Instagram Reels, on which many Americans will get their exposure. In March, Biden gave an energetic State of the Union speech. Millions only saw the 15-second clip where he mangled the name of a murder victim. The perception gap between Americans who watched the speech and those who saw tiny snippets was vast. Biden is certain to produce a few clippable Bidenisms next week.

Are these the impressions on which the future of US democracy hinges? The dispiriting answer is maybe. The good news for Biden is that the rules mostly favour him. Trump feeds off live audiences and will have to adapt to silence. He will be inaudible when Biden is speaking. Biden would be negligent if he did not remind viewers that his opponent is a convicted felon.

It would be nice to think policy clashes will decide the debate. Even more than usual, however, what the candidates say will matter less than how each seems. Biden’s goal will be to ensure his age will be less of a talking point than Trump’s character. On paper his task is simple. In practice it is anything but.

FT

Da última vez, Biden "safou-se" nos debates. Agora, não o estou a ver a safar-se. Cá para mim, vai ser material para mais alguns videos...

[MarcoAntonio]

Bem, vou actualizar que elas não param de cair.

Em vésperas do debate, começa a espalhar-se uma descrença generalizada....

Para um incumbente, são valores mesmo muito baixos.

53.4% - Trump (R)
27.1% - Biden (D)
4.7% - Obama (D)
3.4% - Newsom (D)
1.7% - Harris (D)
1.4% - Kennedy (I)
1.4% - Clinton (D)
0.6% - Whitmer (D)
0.6% - Haley (R)
0.4% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.2% - Outros


Trump está à frente nas polls na generalidade dos toss-ups, ainda que muito marginalmente. E lidera algo confortavelmente em vários estados que têm sido renhidos.

[MarcoAntonio]

Continua o resvalanço, com Biden prestes a entrar na casa dos 20's.

E pronto, aí está. Biden está abaixo da fasquia dos 30% nas odds se tomarmos como referência a Betfair (exchange).

Especulo se, caso aparecesse nesta altura alguém (com alguma visibilidade nacional e afecto dos Democratas) a dizer expressamente que estava disponível para se candidatar, se não saltava imediatamente para a frente do Biden nas odds (mesmo antes de se ser oficialmente indicado pelo partido). Se repararmos, alternativas já reunem perto de uns 15% apesar da generalidade deles ter dito expressamente que não se ia candidatar.

Imagine-se agora que algum dizia que estava disponível....

53.9% - Trump (R)
28.6% - Biden (D)
3.6% - Obama (D)
3.3% - Newsom (D)
1.6% - Harris (D)
1.3% - Kennedy (I)
1.0% - Clinton (D)
0.5% - Whitmer (D)
0.5% - Haley (R)
0.3% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.2% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.


O The Hill dá 59% para o Trump e 41% para os Democratas (nem dizem Biden, na capa) de forecast.

[MarcoAntonio]

Claro que isto resolvia-se tudo muito bem: com outro candidato. O homem está velho, é evidente. É a lei da vida. Está lento, é difícil de o entender (atrapalha-se literalmente a falar) e tem dificuldade em se movimentar. Tem mais de 80 anos e não está bem conservado, isso é evidente. O team biden acusa o outro lado de fazer ataques desperados. Pois também a mim me parece que eles estão desesperados agarrados a um candidato quando para a generalidade dos restantes (segundo as polls) não é pretendido e acham que está velho (leia-se, que a idade é um problema no caso dele).

Na minha opinião, repito, é desprestigiante. Se eu fosse americano, sentir-me-ia embaraçado. De ter um candidato assim e de ter o mesmo par de candidatos estes dois outra vez (segundo polls que já referi antes, mais de 60% dos americanos não quer realmente nenhum dos dois).



Curiosamente, no meio da conversa toda um dos jornalistas levanta esta questão mesmo do publico, que já se reflectiu várias vezes em polls. Não é segredo nenhum o que os americanos acham sobre o assunto:

Q The majorities of American voters who are telling pollsters repeatedly for years now that they have serious concerns about this President’s cognitive fitness are being misled by cheap fake videos? Is that what you’re telling us?

Há também uma peça recente que partilhei há dias sobre insiders que discutem episódios que se passam (alegadamente) em reuniões com ele na Casa Branca. Os videos acabam por ser acessórios. O problema tinha solução simples...

[MarcoAntonio]

Ok, essa parte não está incluída nos videos de baixo onde ela repete "cheap fakes" uma série de vezes. Mas aqui (no link) está então a transcrição completa da conferência (do que se vê uma grande parte nos videos anteriores que já partilhaste e se pode constatar portanto uma boa parte). E concretamente em relação ao segundo excerto, aqui está a resposta completa dessa outra parte:

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Yeah, we — and I think you all have called this the “cheap fakes” video. And that’s exactly what they are. They are cheap fakes video. They are done in bad faith. And — and some of your news organization have — have been very clear, have stressed that these right-wing — the right-wing critics of the President have a credibility problem because of — the fact checkers have repeatedly caught them pushing misinformation, disinformation.

And so, we see this, and this is something coming from — from your — your part of the world, calling them cheap fakes and misinformation.

And I’ll quote the Washington Post, where they wrote — they wrote about this, and they said, “How Republicans used misleading videos to attack Biden in a 24-hour period.” And to their credit, we have a conservative — Washington Examiner did call them out as well, calling out the New York Post.

Ironically, several — several recent cheap fakes actually attack the President for thanking troops — for thanking troops. That is what they’re attacking the President for. Both in Normandy this happened and again in Italy.

And I think that it tells you everything that we need to know about how — how desperate — how desperate Republicans are here.

And instead of talking about the President’s performance in office — and what I mean by that is his legislative wins, what he’s been able to do for the American people across the country — we’re seeing these deep fakes, these manipulated videos. And it is, again, done in bad faith.

Go ahead.

Depois disto volta ao assunto e repete "cheap fakes" mais 8 vezes. Ao todo há 12 instâncias de "cheap fake" e 1 instância de "deep fake". A mim parece-me evidente que é um episódio de slip of the tongue. Basta ver a resposta toda na sua continuidade e depois também as outras respostas.


Ela refere-se também a certa altura especificamente ao video que colocaste. E chama-lhe "cheap fake".

[BearManBull]

53s

[MarcoAntonio]

Para quem tem duvidas que a democracia estás morta e enterrada.

As relações publicas da Casa Branca alegam que vídeos em directo das paragens cerebrais de Biden são fake e gerados por AI.

Isto é outro nível de mentira num patamar nunca antes atingido nos tempos modernos.

Escoria.

Eles também alegaram que tinham sido gerados por AI? Se sim, onde?

Parece-me estranho que o tenham feito tendo em conta que nos videos que partilhaste dizem repetidamente "cheap fake" (ou "cheapfake", utiliza-se nas duas formas), um neologismo que significa utilizar tecnologia rudimentar de edição (manipulação relativamente simples). Dizer "cheap fake" - que foi o que partilhaste - é basicamente sinónimo de dizer "não AI". Mas tu alegas que eles dizem que foi gerado por AI. Foi noutra ocasião? E acerca dos mesmos ou outros vídeos?

[MarcoAntonio]

Que o homem está velho, não há grande conversa. Mas..." 'wanders' away "? Quando eles estão rodeados de paraquedistas? Há um atrás, há pelo menos dois logo ali perto que é para onde ele se está a dirigir, a congratular e a conversar com, e outros ainda mais à frente.

Dito isto, o homem está velho. Acho um embaraço os americanos terem de marrar com um presidente assim (e terem de marrar com ele e outro que tal como candidatos nas próximas eleições). Mas pronto, é o que temos!

Vamos lá ver como corre o debate, eu já tenho difuldade em perceber o que ele diz. Eu e provavelmente uns largos milhões de americanos....

[BearManBull]

Um dos vídeos que alegam ser fake.

[BearManBull]

Para quem tem duvidas que a democracia estás morta e enterrada.

As relações publicas da Casa Branca alegam que vídeos em directo das paragens cerebrais de Biden são fake e gerados por AI.

Isto é outro nível de mentira num patamar nunca antes atingido nos tempos modernos.

Escoria.


“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” -George Orwell

[MarcoAntonio]

Continua o resvalanço, com Biden prestes a entrar na casa dos 20's. Entretanto, Kennedy caiu e alternativas ao Biden subiram um pouquinho. Mas muito pouco e assim continuará até alguém anunciar intenção de se candidatar.

Está agendado um debate para 27 de Junho, portanto, dentro de dias. Talvez, quem sabe, o dia em que os Democratas "descobrem" que precisam desesperadamente de outro candidato?

53.8% - Trump (R)
30.0% - Biden (D)
3.3% - Obama (D)
2.5% - Newsom (D)
1.7% - Harris (D)
1.2% - Kennedy (I)
0.9% - Clinton (D)
0.5% - Whitmer (D)
0.5% - Haley (R)
0.4% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.1% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.

[BearManBull]

Nos media tradicionais quem critica o custo de vida é racista...

[BearManBull]

@Foxnews

Biden makes major gains with crucial voting group ahead of 1st debate with Trump: poll


Biden overcame a 12-percentage point deficit among independents and now leads Trump 50%-48% with the group compared to a previous NPR/PBS News/ Marist poll taken in May.

...



Trump's overall lead over Biden stays at one percentage point (42%-41%) with the inclusion of independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (11%) and Dr. Cornel West (3%), as well as Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein (1%) and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver (1%).

White voters favor Trump 55%-43%, while non-White voters favor Biden 58%-40%. The two are tied at 50% each with voters under the age of 45, but Trump holds a slight advantage (49%-48%) with voters over the age of 45.

Voters believe Trump would better handle the economy (54%-45%), immigration (54%-44%) and the U.S. role on the world stage (50%-49%). They believe Biden would better handle preserving democracy (52%-46%) and abortion (54%-42%). They also believe he cares more about the average person (50%-46%).


Inflation is viewed as the top issue by a plurality (30%) of voters, followed by democracy (29%), immigration (18%), healthcare (8%), abortion (8%) and crime (6%).

A majority of 55% say they are not satisfied with either Trump or Biden as the candidates in the race, but more Biden voters (58%) than Trump voters (49%) specifically say they are not satisfied.

[BearManBull]

The Biden administration on Tuesday will announce an executive action allowing certain undocumented spouses and children of US citizens to apply for lawful permanent residency without leaving the country – a sweeping election-year move that could offer deportation protections to hundreds of thousands of people.

The action will provide legal status and protections for about 500,000 American families and roughly 50,000 noncitizen children of immigrants under the age of 21 whose parent is married to a US citizen, a senior administration official said. It amounts to one of the federal government’s biggest relief programs for undocumented immigrants since the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program was announced by then-President Barack Obama in 2012.

The action is aimed at appealing to key Latino constituencies in battleground states, including Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, that will be crucial for Biden’s chances to claim a second term. The move is an olive branch to immigration advocates and progressives, many of whom have sharply criticized Biden for previous restrictive actions, including taking steps this month to limit asylum processing at the US southern border.

Este é o master plan para retirar votos a Trump?

E depois quem eu sou para saber o que quer que seja num mundo de loucos.

[MarcoAntonio]

Como a descer uma colina...

53.0% - Trump (R)
31.5% - Biden (D)
3.0% - Obama (D)
2.0% - Newsom (D)
1.4% - Kennedy (I)
1.3% - Harris (D)
1.2% - Clinton (D)
0.5% - Whitmer (D)
0.5% - Haley (R)
0.4% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.0% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.

[MarcoAntonio]

Tem havido uns zunzuns na imprensa. O assunto - que é claramente um dos que mais preocupa a população e só piora de dia para dia, que a idade e a lei fundamental da vida não perdoam - tem sido um tudo nada mais falado nestes últimos dias (o timing terá que ver com o suposto debate que se avizinha?).

Um dos mais significativos foi talvez a peça do WST de há dias:

Behind Closed Doors, Biden Shows Signs of Slipping

Participants in meetings said the 81-year-old president performed poorly at times. The White House said Biden is sharp and his critics are playing partisan politics.

WASHINGTON—When President Biden met with congressional leaders in the West Wing in January to negotiate a Ukraine funding deal, he spoke so softly at times that some participants struggled to hear him, according to five people familiar with the meeting. He read from notes to make obvious points, paused for extended periods and sometimes closed his eyes for so long that some in the room wondered whether he had tuned out.

In a February one-on-one chat in the Oval Office with House Speaker Mike Johnson, the president said a recent policy change by his administration that jeopardizes some big energy projects was just a study, according to six people told at the time about what Johnson said had happened. Johnson worried the president’s memory had slipped about the details of his own policy.

Last year, when Biden was negotiating with House Republicans to lift the debt ceiling, his demeanor and command of the details seemed to shift from one day to the next, according to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and two others familiar with the talks. On some days, he had loose and spontaneous exchanges with Republicans, and on others he mumbled and appeared to rely on notes.

“I used to meet with him when he was vice president. I’d go to his house,” McCarthy said in an interview. “He’s not the same person.”

The 81-year-old Biden is the oldest person to hold the presidency. His age and cognitive fitness have become major issues in his campaign for a second term, both in the minds of voters and in attacks on him by Republicans. The White House and top aides said he remains a sharp and vigorous leader.

Some who have worked with him, however, including Democrats and some who have known him back to his time as vice president, described a president who appears slower now, someone who has both good moments and bad ones.

For much of his career, Biden enjoyed a reputation on Capitol Hill for being a master negotiator of legislative deals, known for his detailed knowledge of issues and insights into the other side’s motivations and needs—and for hitting his stride when the pressure was on. Over the past year, though, with Republicans in control of the House, that reputation has diminished.

(...)

O Trump também mostra os sinais da idade, para além da energia que não é a de 2016 ou sequer a de 2020, tem cometido gaffes que parecem sair da norma dele e dever-se também à idade. Mas as situações não são comparáveis, o estado de debilidade física e mental de um e outro não são comparáveis.

[BearManBull]

Nem sei que dizer, penso que não existe absolutamente nada que fique com registro positivo da presidencia de Biden.

O próprio facto de se voltar a candidata só demonstra o ser hediondo que é. Não que o Trump seja muito melhor, mas ao contrário de Trump este não recebe nem de perto o merecido escrutínio.

Os discursos de Trump também se nota que estão a ficar mais apagados e que lhe falta a energia de outros tempos.

Estas eleições só demonstram que o melhor para a civilização é quanto menos politiquices melhor. E acima de tudo ter o poder bem distribuído, compacto e descentralizado. Mas não a tendência é achar que se deve alargar ainda mais o império UE e meter ainda mais gente em Bruxelas...

[MarcoAntonio]

A distância nas odds continua a aumentar. Quanto ás sondagens, embora no voto popular as coisas estejam muito próximas, no mapa eleitoral Trump tem vantagem evidente. Alternativas ao Biden, subiram em geral nos últimos dias nas odds. Mas apenas marginalmente, uma vez que formalmente (ainda) não há qualquer alternativa...

Se o objectivo dos Democratas é perder nas presidenciais, estão a jogar bastante bem. Na Virginia já nem é claro quem está em vantagem e estará aparentemente em risco também. Não está de parte, inclusivamente, a possibilidade de um landslide a favor do Trump se as coisas continuarem com este ritmo (especialmente se o Biden tiver uma prestação horrível no debate, se é que o debate vai ocorrer).

53.1% - Trump (R)
31.9% - Biden (D)
2.8% - Obama (D)
2.1% - Newsom (D)
1.2% - Kennedy (I)
1.2% - Harris (D)
1.0% - Clinton (D)
0.6% - Whitmer (D)
0.6% - Haley (R)
0.5% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.0% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.


No mapa, passei Virginia para toss-up. A vantagem no Arizona é evidente nas polls para o Trump, Pensilvania também parece estar na frente mas com uma vantagem mais estreita. Winsconsin e Michigan com empate técnico. Mas o mapa diz tudo sobre o panorama e quem vai na frente no mapa do colégio eleitoral, mesmo que no voto popular estejam muito próximos.

[BearManBull]

Bem agora já percebi a subida da Apple realmente estes robots cada vez são mais realistas.

Biden appears to freeze for several seconds at White House event

[MarcoAntonio]

A Convenção democrata é apenas no final de agosto (de 19 a 22). Quero acreditar que até lá resolvem isto e substituem os candidatos. Não consigo acreditar que outro cenário é real.

É assim, eu não vejo momentum para isso (já podia ter sido feito há imenso tempo). Vivemos um momento "anormal"...

Se me apontassem há 10 ou 20 anos atrás que o cenário ia ser este, eu acho que perguntava "ficou tudo doido"? Mas não ficou, eu acho que não ficou. Aliás, a generalidade das sondagens sobre o tema apontam para que os americanos não queiram nenhum dos dois candidatos (em parte é um artefacto do sistema bipartidário americano, embora certamente que haja muito mais envolvido, estou manifestamente a simplificar).



Edit: bom, parece que vai haver um debate (e digo parece porque há quem especule que Trump não vai comparecer) e daí que não sei; se o Biden tiver uma prestação "daquelas" durante o debate, quem sabe "acende-se uma luz".

[MVP]

A Convenção democrata é apenas no final de agosto (de 19 a 22). Quero acreditar que até lá resolvem isto e substituem os candidatos. Não consigo acreditar que outro cenário é real.