Ao minuto: BES era regime "autocrático", argumenta o Ministério Público

[Follow-Me]

Muita coisa já se disse sobre Robert Pretcher. Respigamos algumas. Muitas mais há, é uma questão de investigar.


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/04/your- ... d=all&_r=0
Nesta notícia podemos ler o seguinte: Mr. Prechter is convinced that we have entered a market decline of staggering proportions — perhaps the biggest of the last 300 years. Originating in the writings of Ralph Nelson Elliott, an obscure accountant who found repetitive patterns, or “fractals,” in the stock market of the 1930s and ’40s, the theory suggests that an epic downswing is under way, Mr. Prechter said. But he argued that even skeptical investors should take his advice seriously.
“I’m saying: ‘Winter is coming. Buy a coat,’ ” he said. “Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I’m wrong, you’re not hurt. If they’re wrong, you’re dead. It’s pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while.”
His advice: individual investors should move completely out of the market and hold cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury bills, for years to come. (For traders with a fair amount of skill and willingness to embrace risk, he suggests other alternatives, like shorting the market or making bets on volatility.) But ultimately, “the decline will lead to one of the best investment opportunities ever,” he said.
Buy-and-hold stock investors will be devastated in a crash much worse than the declines of 2008 and early 2009 or the worst years of the Great Depression or the Panic of 1873, he predicted.
E mais à frente pode ler-se: Since 1980, the advice in his investing newsletters, when converted into a portfolio, has slightly underperformed the overall stock market but has been much less risky, losing money in only one calendar year, according to calculations by The Hulbert Financial Digest. Mr. Prechter said he disagreed with the methodology used in these measurements, but offered none of his own.

http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616#.VEGMWvnF-E0
Aqui podemos ler isto: The Monday morning headline blared: "U.S. likely to lose AAA rating: Prechter." Digging into the article widely distributed by behemoth news service Reuters, we learn that Robert Prechter also predicts:
"...investors' confidence in an economic rebound fading, a trend that will drag the S&P 500 stock index well below the March 6 intraday low of 666.79 by the end of this year or early next." "...credit markets to clam up again as they did in the first phase of the global financial crisis and for the U.S. economy to sink into a depression." Actually, Prechter has been making predictions for many years through his investment newsletter, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert has been documenting Prechter's investment trading predictions and picks since 1985 so he now has a nearly 25 year long track record which can tell us whether you should trade on his predictions or not.
Here's how Prechter's trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert's analysis:
Annualized Return:
Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent
Prechter's Trading Advice -15.4 percent
Total Return:
Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent
Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent
The underperformance of Prechter's newsletter is nothing short of astonishing and stunning! On an annualized basis, Prechter has underperformed the broad U.S. stock market Wilshire 5000 index by a whopping 25 percent per year!

http://www.avaresearch.com/articles/713 ... art-1.html

Nem tudo é mau sobre este guru/trader. Por exemplo, na wikipedia podemos ler:
In 1979 Prechter left Merrill Lynch and published the first subscription issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. The 1970s had been very bullish years in the gold market but mostly bearish for stocks, yet his Elliott wave analysis called for a long-term reversal lower in gold (February 1980) and a long-term "super bull market underway" in stocks (October 1982).Because these forecasts proved mostly correct—especially for the stock indexes—Prechter's following grew. His visibility increased further after he won the U.S. Trading Championship in 1984, with a then-record 444% return in a monitored options trading account. He was profiled in many financial and business publications and named "Guru of the Decade" by the Financial News Network (now CNBC) for the 1980s. Prechter has been forecasting a large-scale bear market, as explained in his book Conquer the Crash

Ainda na wikipedia também se lê: While Prechter has his admirers, he has been criticized by media and pundits for his long term record. For example, The Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow – But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.Technical analyst David Aronson wrote: The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.

[J Alves]

Excelso anthimio

A minha ideia geral de um gajo louco que está em vias de ser internado por demência tb e essa. Mas mais importante que isso é a satisfação de ver que és uma pessoa disponivel pra partilhar e isso é de louvar. E mais, ver cada semana q passa que vale a pena "perder" tempo a ler os teus simples graficos mas pra mim sempre com muito sumo


Grande abraco

[Anthìmio]

Excelsos,

Deixo aqui a minha ideia para o S&P500: Pequena subida/lateralização para depois iniciar novamente o sentido descendente.

Um bom fim de semana,

Anthìmio

[J Alves]

Caro 100

assim pela rama a minha opinião já a disse num post anterior que estou mais inclinado para que os suportes agora tenham virado resistencias. mas amanha com muita calma tenho de fazer vistoria geral e aprofundada aos graficos.

grande abraço e bom fdsemana

Caros amigos:


Então ninguém está a planear piqueniques com umas sandes de berbigão para os próximos dias?

Agora só vejo malta mais virada para ir às touradas...


Bem, em épocas de dúvidas é sempre bom saber o que pensam lá por fora outros grandes traders da atualidade dos mercados, assim deixo-vos ficar a opinião de um dos grandes gurus dos mercados norte-americanos, neste caso o Bob Prechter, com a visão dele, claro:


Anyone who has been watching the market for the past few years knows that Wall Street wanted the stock market to get back to where it was.

You know, to the optimism and price levels in the time before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

And Wall Street did get its way in the Dow Industrials more than a year ago. The index reached new all-time highs in 2013.

As for the return to pre-crisis optimism, that took a bit longer. But return it did, and very recently, in two measureable ways:


Stock ownership just hit "a rare extreme" -- 34.4% of total financial assets among US households. That's a higher percentage ownership than in 2007.
The percentage of bears among advisory services fell to 13.3%, the lowest in 27 years. "This means 87.6% of advisors are bullish on the long term trend."


Of course, these are contrary indicators. Many other similar measures have reached similar extremes. So when it comes to a "Return to 2007," the real question is:

How far will the re-enactment go?

Markets are most likely to turn when the fewest number of participants expect it. The reason truly big market meltdowns become meltdowns is because so few people are ready beforehand.

We've seen a lot of down days in the stock market since the September 19 high. And, after every one of those losses, I read and hear the same idea from the media: This is "a buying opportunity."

In truth, that notion is also part of the re-enactment.

I'm obliged to say that it's hardly been two weeks since Bob Prechter published his Special Interim Report. It posted in the afternoon on September 19, the same day as the high.

In 20, Bob said:

"This Is It."

It's times like these that investors need to prepare for the coming bear market. What we're seeing is only the beginning. We would rather see you prepare early instead of late.

Preparing early means sidestepping perhaps the biggest bear market in living memory. It means safeguarding your spending power as others struggle to make ends meet.

As Bob Prechter says, bear markets move fast and are intensely emotional; investors and traders who are prepared have greater opportunities on the downside than on the upside.

[Primvs]

Caros amigos:


Então ninguém está a planear piqueniques com umas sandes de berbigão para os próximos dias?

Agora só vejo malta mais virada para ir às touradas...


Bem, em épocas de dúvidas é sempre bom saber o que pensam lá por fora outros grandes traders da atualidade dos mercados, assim deixo-vos ficar a opinião de um dos grandes gurus dos mercados norte-americanos, neste caso o Bob Prechter, com a visão dele, claro:


Anyone who has been watching the market for the past few years knows that Wall Street wanted the stock market to get back to where it was.

You know, to the optimism and price levels in the time before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

And Wall Street did get its way in the Dow Industrials more than a year ago. The index reached new all-time highs in 2013.

As for the return to pre-crisis optimism, that took a bit longer. But return it did, and very recently, in two measureable ways:


Stock ownership just hit "a rare extreme" -- 34.4% of total financial assets among US households. That's a higher percentage ownership than in 2007.
The percentage of bears among advisory services fell to 13.3%, the lowest in 27 years. "This means 87.6% of advisors are bullish on the long term trend."


Of course, these are contrary indicators. Many other similar measures have reached similar extremes. So when it comes to a "Return to 2007," the real question is:

How far will the re-enactment go?

Markets are most likely to turn when the fewest number of participants expect it. The reason truly big market meltdowns become meltdowns is because so few people are ready beforehand.

We've seen a lot of down days in the stock market since the September 19 high. And, after every one of those losses, I read and hear the same idea from the media: This is "a buying opportunity."

In truth, that notion is also part of the re-enactment.

I'm obliged to say that it's hardly been two weeks since Bob Prechter published his Special Interim Report. It posted in the afternoon on September 19, the same day as the high.

In 20, Bob said:

"This Is It."

It's times like these that investors need to prepare for the coming bear market. What we're seeing is only the beginning. We would rather see you prepare early instead of late.

Preparing early means sidestepping perhaps the biggest bear market in living memory. It means safeguarding your spending power as others struggle to make ends meet.

As Bob Prechter says, bear markets move fast and are intensely emotional; investors and traders who are prepared have greater opportunities on the downside than on the upside.

Bom contributo Cem...eu estou para escrever uma coisa mais elaborada ja ha uns dias...mas vou ter de deixar para o fim de semana! Mas nao fugirá muito a isso!

[Cem pt]

Caros amigos:


Então ninguém está a planear piqueniques com umas sandes de berbigão para os próximos dias?

Agora só vejo malta mais virada para ir às touradas...


Bem, em épocas de dúvidas é sempre bom saber o que pensam lá por fora outros grandes traders da atualidade dos mercados, assim deixo-vos ficar a opinião de um dos grandes gurus dos mercados norte-americanos, neste caso o Bob Prechter, com a visão dele, claro:


Anyone who has been watching the market for the past few years knows that Wall Street wanted the stock market to get back to where it was.

You know, to the optimism and price levels in the time before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

And Wall Street did get its way in the Dow Industrials more than a year ago. The index reached new all-time highs in 2013.

As for the return to pre-crisis optimism, that took a bit longer. But return it did, and very recently, in two measureable ways:


Stock ownership just hit "a rare extreme" -- 34.4% of total financial assets among US households. That's a higher percentage ownership than in 2007.
The percentage of bears among advisory services fell to 13.3%, the lowest in 27 years. "This means 87.6% of advisors are bullish on the long term trend."


Of course, these are contrary indicators. Many other similar measures have reached similar extremes. So when it comes to a "Return to 2007," the real question is:

How far will the re-enactment go?

Markets are most likely to turn when the fewest number of participants expect it. The reason truly big market meltdowns become meltdowns is because so few people are ready beforehand.

We've seen a lot of down days in the stock market since the September 19 high. And, after every one of those losses, I read and hear the same idea from the media: This is "a buying opportunity."

In truth, that notion is also part of the re-enactment.

I'm obliged to say that it's hardly been two weeks since Bob Prechter published his Special Interim Report. It posted in the afternoon on September 19, the same day as the high.

In 20, Bob said:

"This Is It."

It's times like these that investors need to prepare for the coming bear market. What we're seeing is only the beginning. We would rather see you prepare early instead of late.

Preparing early means sidestepping perhaps the biggest bear market in living memory. It means safeguarding your spending power as others struggle to make ends meet.

As Bob Prechter says, bear markets move fast and are intensely emotional; investors and traders who are prepared have greater opportunities on the downside than on the upside.

[Primvs]

Estou surpreendido que num dia destes...a malta esteja tao caladinha...

Zeca...Tio J...teve ali a cheira os 1900 mas nao quis...veio aos famosos 1885...acham que vai partir os 1885 ou rebentam os 1900?

Tio??? Cumé que?

Neste momento não tenho uma reflexão muito aprofundada, pois preciso de ver os graficos dos subsectores com muita calma. Mas há uma coisa que deixo para discussão. Será que os antigos suportes que desta vez foram como manteiga mas que foram importantes na subida como resistencias não viraram agora a resistência? Será que o sp não irá deixar um martelo falso no grafico semanal? Será que o sp não precisa de fazer uma divergencia positiva no graf diario do cash?

As dúvidas pra já são bastantes, pelo menos as minhas

Tio na optica de apresentar Às minhas amigas!!!!

Pois...as tuas perguntas fazem sentido...as quedas foram violentas...nao podiam ser passadas assim sem mais nem menos...eu pensei que os 1885...eram a zona...mas afinal as vendas surgiram nos 1900...e neste momento...testa a abertura para fazer uma vela feia...

[J Alves]

Estou surpreendido que num dia destes...a malta esteja tao caladinha...

Zeca...Tio J...teve ali a cheira os 1900 mas nao quis...veio aos famosos 1885...acham que vai partir os 1885 ou rebentam os 1900?

Tio??? Cumé que?

Neste momento não tenho uma reflexão muito aprofundada, pois preciso de ver os graficos dos subsectores com muita calma. Mas há uma coisa que deixo para discussão. Será que os antigos suportes que desta vez foram como manteiga mas que foram importantes na subida como resistencias não viraram agora a resistência? Será que o sp não irá deixar um martelo falso no grafico semanal? Será que o sp não precisa de fazer uma divergencia positiva no graf diario do cash?

As dúvidas pra já são bastantes, pelo menos as minhas

[Primvs]

Estou surpreendido que num dia destes...a malta esteja tao caladinha...

Zeca...Tio J...teve ali a cheira os 1900 mas nao quis...veio aos famosos 1885...acham que vai partir os 1885 ou rebentam os 1900?

[Limonov]

Caguei na velha...mais uma carga a 1892,5...ja dupliquei a posiçao inicial!

Mas de que velha é que esta toda a gente a falar?

Desta velha:

[Youmeu]

Caguei na velha...mais uma carga a 1892,5...ja dupliquei a posiçao inicial!

Mas de que velha é que esta toda a gente a falar?

[Primvs]

Nao ta ai ninguem com a Bloomberg ligada? Podiam fazer ai o relato do que a velhota está por ai a dizer!

A beilha não tá na minha bloomberg

Caguei na velha...mais uma carga a 1892,5...ja dupliquei a posiçao inicial!

[Dom_Quixote]

Nao ta ai ninguem com a Bloomberg ligada? Podiam fazer ai o relato do que a velhota está por ai a dizer!

A beilha não tá na minha bloomberg

[Primvs]

Reforço SP 500 metade da posiçao inicial a 1882!!!!! Hoje é mandar cornada na malta toda!!!

Se a velha me lixa...vou ter de ir atacar no PQ Eduardo VII para pagar a margem

Hehehehe....

Nao ta ai ninguem com a Bloomberg ligada? Podiam fazer ai o relato do que a velhota está por ai a dizer!

[zecatreca_1]

Reforço SP 500 metade da posiçao inicial a 1882!!!!! Hoje é mandar cornada na malta toda!!!

Se a velha me lixa...vou ter de ir atacar no PQ Eduardo VII para pagar a margem

Hehehehe....

[Primvs]

Reforço SP 500 metade da posiçao inicial a 1882!!!!! Hoje é mandar cornada na malta toda!!!

Se a velha me lixa...vou ter de ir atacar no PQ Eduardo VII para pagar a margem

[zecatreca_1]

Seguindo o raciocinio que tive de manha para o DAX...e como o sacana disparou logo...antecipei o movimento a realizar no SP...longo a 1864,5

Tenho posições 40pontos abaixo desse valor e outras 38pontos abaixo também.
O stop ainda está nos 1790, estou a dar margem para a volatilidade. Se bem que já podia passar para os 1833. Ainda assim, o macaco pode querer dar a volta e fechar em mínimos no semanal para fazer o tal mínimo....
Bem...vou tratar do oirinho

[Primvs]

Tanto falaram em correcção de 10% que conseguiram obtê-la. Agora qual vai ser o discurso?

Depende em grande parte do discurso da tia Yellen...

Óh Primvs, a tia discursa hoje? A que horas?

13:30 hora da Tugalandia

[Dom_Quixote]

Tanto falaram em correcção de 10% que conseguiram obtê-la. Agora qual vai ser o discurso?

Depende em grande parte do discurso da tia Yellen...

Óh Primvs, a tia discursa hoje? A que horas?

[Primvs]

Seguindo o raciocinio que tive de manha para o DAX...e como o sacana disparou logo...antecipei o movimento a realizar no SP...longo a 1864,5

[Limonov]

Não quero bater o mercado, nem ninguém sério me disse que havia máquinas assim. Mas o meu objetivo primário é que o mercado não me bata, o secundário é dar-lhe uns sopapos ritmados

Abraço,

Limonov

[654235]

Olá Luxor,

Tens um belo sistema auto, e revela também um enorme trabalho prévio de programação.

Que continue a trazer-te bons resultados.

Abraço,

Limonov

É a minha máquina de imprimir dinheiro.

Quem fala assim não gago!
Também quero uma quando for grande!

Abraço,
Limonov

Agora fora de brincadeiras
Fiz um teste com o historico disponivel ate meados de 2013 e a performance apesar de ser como é obvio muito superior a esta última de inicio em 1 de Outubro, tem alguns precalços pelo caminho.
Daí que convêm estar atento aos rolamentos da maquina. Não existe sistema algum que consiga bater o mercado, por mais que te queiram dizer o contrario.

[Limonov]

Olá Luxor,

Tens um belo sistema auto, e revela também um enorme trabalho prévio de programação.

Que continue a trazer-te bons resultados.

Abraço,

Limonov

É a minha máquina de imprimir dinheiro.

Quem fala assim não gago!
Também quero uma quando for grande!

Abraço,
Limonov

[654235]

Olá Luxor,

Tens um belo sistema auto, e revela também um enorme trabalho prévio de programação.

Que continue a trazer-te bons resultados.

Abraço,

Limonov

É a minha máquina de imprimir dinheiro.

[Follow-Me]

Tanto falaram em correcção de 10% que conseguiram obtê-la. Agora qual vai ser o discurso?