CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Oil surges after Joe Biden’s comments on Israeli retaliation

US officials believe response to Iranian strike will be measured enough to avoid escalation

Oil prices soared to their highest level in more than a month on Thursday as traders speculated that Israel could engage in retaliatory strikes against Iran’s oil industry.

Brent crude rose by more than 5 per cent to settle at $77.62 per barrel after US President Joe Biden told reporters that such a move was under discussion in response to Tuesday’s missile attack on Israel by Iran.

Asked whether the US would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, Biden said: “We’re in discussion of that,” although in his truncated comment the US president went on to say: “I think that would be a little . . . anyway.”

In recent days, senior US officials have held a series of conversations with top Israeli officials, as the US and western allies try to limit the scope of Israel’s response and prevent a broader regional conflict.

US officials believe Israel’s retaliation will be measured enough to avoid triggering new rounds of escalation across the Middle East.

O corte dos juros pelos bancos centrais, recorde-se, ajuda a revitalizar a atividade económica e, consequentemente, a procura por energia.

Os preços do crude estão a negociar em máximos de meados de abril, impulsionados sobretudo pela perspetiva de cortes de juros da Reserva Federal norte-americana ainda este ano e pela expectativa de uma redução das reservas de crude nos EUA.

Peak oil demand, they added, will occur by 2034 at a level of 110 mb/d "followed by a long plateau" until 2040.

Among oil products, gasoline demand is seen cresting in four years and middle distillates -- diesel and jet fuel -- in the "mid-2030s." Regionally, emerging markets in Asia are projected to drive the majority of global oil demand growth.

Partly undergirding this outlook has been a recent stagnation in electric vehicle sales, a trend that the Goldman Sachs analysts said raises the odds of a slow adoption of non-combustion engines. Under this scenario, oil demand could continue to increase towards around 113 mb/d by 2040.

Os preços do petróleo estão a subir, impulsionados pela instabilidade geopolítica e sinais de que a Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo e Aliados (OPEP+) vai manter os cortes de produção.

As cotações do crude terminaram o ano com saldo negativo, gorando as expectativas do consenso de mercado. Apesar de este ano poder trazer ganhos, as estimativas são cautelosas.

Em 2023, o desempenho do “ouro negro” nos mercados internacionais ficou aquém do esperado pelo consenso do mercado. Os preços chegaram a rondar os 100 dólares por barril em Londres e o Banco Mundial chegou mesmo a estimar no final de outubro que, num cenário mais adverso, o crude poderia chegar aos 150 dólares – com o conflito entre Israel e o Hamas a alimentar essa perspetiva caso a ofensiva se alargasse a mais países do Médio

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